Analysis ExpreS2ion Biotech: Promising long-term data

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding utförd av Analysguiden

ExpreS2ion presents strong data and secures phase 3-study, however, against the background of a declining number of covid vaccinations, we are lowering our forecasts.

Sings of superior immunogentic longevity
Bavarian Nordic recently released six-month data on its vaccine candidate ABNCoV2 in a group of 39 individuals taking part in its phase 2 study. Neutralizing antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 Wuhan variant declined less than 50 percent over the period, which may suggest a slower waning and a differentiation to the mRNA vaccines. Even more intriguing were data on the levels of the omicron BA.1 variant, showing no decline after six months.

We interpret the data set as not yet conclusive but still pointing at a potential claim of ABNCoV2 as having a more sustained immunogenic duration than mRNA vaccines.

Bavarian puts safety first in phase 3
Bavarian Nordic kicked off its governmental-funded phase 3 study with ABNCoV2 in September. A first readout from the study is now expected in early 2023, a major potential trigger for ExpreS2ion Biotechnologies.

The phase 3 study design has had a makeover and will be divided into two separate parts, one of which will aim at proving non-inferiority, or equal efficacy, to the market leader Comirnaty. However, the lion’s part of the study, 3 000 subjects, will further substantiate the safety and tolerability of ABNCoV2, which in our view may is conservative and wise disposal of resources.

Vaccination rates falling abruptly in 2023
The rate of daily COVID vaccinations has fallen dramatically in recent month and appears to be heading further lower in spite of the flu season currently setting off in the norther hemisphere. The database Our World in Data keeps track of daily volumes of Covid-19 vaccinations and is currently at a daily 1.1 million doses, far below the peak at daily 44 million doses in June 2021.

Our best estimate is extrapolating the current level into 2023 which would correspond to a global number of vaccinations of 600-700 million in 2023 compared to close to 8 billion in 2022. Market value will not suffer nearly as much since manufacturers are raising prices substantially.

Fair value lowered based on new volumes
In light of dwindling vaccination rates and a launch now likely in 2024 we are adjusting our forecast of doses sold in 2024-28 to 130 million (225), corresponding to a 17 percent share in US/EU, a share which may increase if long-term phase 3 data repeat the phase 2 longevity. Our estimate of lower volumes is partly compensated by a higher sales price for ABNCoV2. Fair value of our base scenario for ExpreS2ion is lowered to SEK 25 (30).